McCain Ahead in Colorado, Florida and Ohio; Tied in Pennsylvania and Virginia
It's Starting to Look Like a Reagan Electoral Map
Barack Obama's strategy has been to change the electoral map by putting red states in play.
He has succeeded in changing the map, but by putting blue states in play.
According to a Siena Research Institute poll released on September 15, 2008, in New York State (31 electoral votes) Obama leads John McCain by only 46% to 41%, in spite of the fact that there are five Democrats for every three Republicans in the state. In June, Obama led in the same poll by 51% to 33%.
Ominously, for Senator Obama, 47% of those polled said that Sarah Palin is qualified to become President of the United States.
Nationally, 63% say John McCain is prepared to be president, but only 44% think Obama is ready. 45% say that Obama is not ready.
A Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows the race tied at 45-45% in that state (10 electoral votes). In May the same poll showed McCain trailing by 13 points. His improvement has come from white voters, young voters, and those with all levels of income and education. Among voters younger than 35, the race is tied.
Rasmussen Reports now show McCain leading in Colorado, Florida, and Ohio, and tied in Virginia, all of which voted for President Bush in 2004.
The race is tied in Pennsylvania, a blue state and one thought to be safely in Obama's column.
Clearly, something is happening below the surface.
Barack Obama could not hope for a more favorable environment in terms of media coverage, the economy, voter dissatisfaction, or his formidable war chest. Yet he's behind.
Perhaps "middle Americans", both politically and geographically, sense that he doesn't have this country's best interests at heart.
A case in point would be Amir Taheri's article in the September 15, 2008 New York Post, which quotes Iraqi officials as saying that Obama tried to convince them not to sign a status of forces agreement with the United States while President Bush is still in office and in a "state of weakness and political confusion".
Any such delay would of course lead to long-term delays in the withdrawal of U.S. forces.
The voters who will decide this race, Reagan Democrats and independents, may view this as an example of Obama using American troops as pawns in the pursuit of his political ambitions.
Conversely, they understand that John McCain and Sarah Palin see our troops as their sons, literally.
While that may not matter to liberals, it's critical to the Reagan coalition.
Obama's advisors of course denied that this conversation with the Iraqis took place, just as they denied secretly advising the Canadians that Obama would not seek to amend NAFTA.
The opinion polls, however, seem to detect unease among the electorate with Obama's never ending string of explanations about his statements made behind closed doors (e.g. voters bitterly clinging to their religion and guns and to their antipathy to people who don't look like them).
Voters are like juries. They have an amazing capacity to detect the truth.
In 2004, President Bush won 286 electoral votes. Iowa, one of the states he won, has 7 electoral votes and is trending toward Obama this year. That would leave the remaining red states with 279 votes, and would mean that McCain could afford to lose states totaling 9 votes. (270 electoral votes are required to get elected president.)
Obama has been aiming at Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), Nevada (5), and Virginia (13), all of which were red states in 2004. If McCain were to lose Iowa, he would have to win three out of those four, and one of them would have to be Virginia.
Unless, of course, he were to win Pennsylvania (21), which would give him a 30 vote margin, in which case he could afford to lose Virginia and Colorado, and either of New Mexico or Nevada.
If McCain were to win Minnesota (10), he would then have a 19 vote margin and could afford to lose Virginia and either of New Mexico or Nevada, or he could afford to lose Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.
The fact that the race is tied in Minnesota and close in New York, however, most likely indicates that McCain is comfortably ahead in all of the aforementioned states.
It's starting to look like a Reagan electoral map.
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